Insight

Consumer pulse survey | Grocery forecast 2022

Grocery gains are here to stay.

Matt Kramer

Matt Kramer

National Sector Leader, Consumer & Retail, KPMG LLP

+1 614-241-4666

Scott Rankin

Scott Rankin

Principal and the US Strategy Service Line Leader, KPMG LLP

+1 617-988-1474

Julia Wilson

Julia Wilson

ESG Strategy Leader, KPMG US

+1 404-222-3511

In November 2021, KPMG surveyed more than 1000 consumers on their expectations for their 2022 grocery spend. The KPMG survey findings can be found below.

Increased budgets equals increased spending

The results of the KPMG Consumer Pulse Survey | Grocery 2022 forecast – special edition reveal that consumers expect to spend more this year on groceries, budgeting a monthly average of $611 in 2022 compared to $532 in 2021.1 While industry estimates anticipate grocery sales to grow approximately 2.7 percent2 in the year ahead, consumers are more optimistic about their spend levels. For example, our grocery forecast found consumers are expecting to increase their spend between 10 to 15 percent across key discretionary and essential categories by December 2022.3 As the world gradually opened back up and higher vaccine rates were achieved in 2021, grocery sales remained strong. Entering into 2022, sales are expected to climb, but margins will be challenged by rising inflation, increased consumer price sensitivity, and higher product costs versus input costs.

 

 

Monthly grocery spend budget 2021 versus expected 2022

 

Average spend in 2022 expected to be $611 versus $532 in 2021

*Totals may not sum to 100% due to rounding.

 

Online grocery shopping remains high

Online grocery remains very high across most generational segments. Across all online categories, grocery is the most popular, with 38 percent of respondents favoring buy online and pick-up in store fulfillment options.4 Not surprisingly, Baby Boomers decreased their online grocery shopping, dropping from 64 percent of online shopping in 2020 to 35 percent in 2021.5 However, in 2021, online grocery shopping was well received and achieved high numbers across younger generations, with Millennials taking the lead (74 percent), followed by Gen Z (71 percent) and Gen X (67 percent.)6

 

Online grocery delivery remains high

 

Industry group sales index February 2020 through September 2021

 



Online grocery experience

 

Method of receiving online grocery orders

Online purchases still high

 

Baby Boomers decreasing the most


Read the survey report

The KPMG Consumer pulse survey series explores key, emerging themes around consumer behaviors, purchasing patterns and the economy. Each survey asks 1,000 U.S. consumers, representing all demographics, timely questions about upcoming purchases and economic conditions. We conduct the surveys to help our clients understand consumers, uncover the signals of permanent change and create basis for transforming their businesses to meet customers where they are.

Grocery gains are here to stay
KPMG Consumer pulse survey | Grocery forecast 2022

Sources

1KPMG Consumer Pulse Survey | Grocery 2022 forecast – special edition, survey fielded October 29 - November 7, 2021, slide 4.

2 Mercatus Research and Euromonitor, Data accessed January 4, 2022.

3 Slide 5

4 Slide 23

5, 6 Slide 22