Private-equity investors who went in early and focused on consumer businesses racked up exceptional returns after the 2008-09 recession. But as investors start looking for opportunities in the consumer sector this time, it is critical to understand how the COVID-19 lockdown has changed consumer behavior and how this recession differs from previous downturns. Picking winners this time will require a deeper, more analytical commercial diligence that goes beyond the normal market and competitive assessments to understand how a prospective acquisition may be impacted in the post COVID-19 “new reality.” Understanding the true implications of COVID-19 to the target earlier in the deal process will allow investors to make more informed decisions as to whether to continue further with diligence or walk away from a potentially bad investment.
Insight
How to evaluate consumer businesses early in the deal process based on the impact of the recession and the “new reality” of consumer behavior.
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