Retailers hope to spark some holiday magic

KPMG retail executive outlook | 2022 Holiday shopping report

According to a recent KPMG survey of 100 retail executives, 75 percent of respondents expect holiday sales to represent up to 40 percent of their company’s total annual sales.1 In 2021, actual retail sales grew by 14.¹ percent, outpacing many of last year’s industry predictions. In the current market climate, KPMG expects retail sales growth to rise 4.2 percent over prior year within the historical growth range of 3 to 5 percent, although flat to slightly negative when considering inflation. ²

Promotions will be a guiding light

With high inflation continuing to squeeze consumer budgets, the upcoming holiday shopping season is expected to be more promotional. This year 73 percent of respondents plan to increase promotional activity, of which 21 percent intend to be “much more” promotional.³

Promotional activity

Promotion activity for upcoming holiday period

Too much and not enough inventory

While 80 percent of respondents expressed concerns over inventory shortages in 2021, this seems to have flipped in 2022 with 59 percent of them anticipating minimal shortages. Additionally, 30 percent of executives expect no shortages, compared to only 3 percent that expressed little or no concern over shortages.⁴

Inventory shortage

Expectation on 2022 holiday inventory shortages

Ringing in the new year with a recession?

While most respondents in our survey are expecting and preparing for a recession in the next 12 months, many believe it will not be too severe and predict it will less than a year.⁵

Recession time

Recession occurence timing