Oil and gas companies know that the increasing adoption of electric vehicles will ultimately have a profound impact on refining, retail fuel and lubricants demand. And yet, it’s common to underestimate how the confluence of multiple forces outside the industry will increase the velocity and impact of the switch to the electric from the internal combustion engine. Specifically, we believe the introduction of autonomous vehicles, coupled with Mobility as a Service, will combine with additional societal and technology trends to drive a more precipitous disruption than typically expected, one which is likely to pull electric vehicles into the market and shift the composition of the fleet much quicker than currently anticipated.
These external forces will usher in a fundamentally new transportation paradigm and begin to disrupt downstream companies in the coming years. What currently seems like a slow-moving threat may have more near-term business implications.
Downstream oil companies may struggle with preparing for a disruption with an unclear, yet potentially accelerated, timeline. An approach to transformation that takes measured steps and addresses hotspots first can strike the balance between protecting today’s business and building tomorrow’s.
The future of energy-supply companies in the increasingly decentralized generation of power lies in finding new solutions and business models for the sale of electricity.